STOCKHOLM, Jun 16 (Alliance News): The world is heading toward a new and more dangerous nuclear arms race, with leading nuclear-armed states modernising and expanding their arsenals in 2024, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warned in a report released Sunday.
SIPRI highlighted that while the overall number of nuclear warheads had declined after the Cold War due to disarmament efforts, that trend is now reversing.
Nuclear powers, particularly the United States and Russia — which together hold about 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons — are extensively modernising their arsenals.
“What we see now is the number of operational nuclear warheads is beginning to increase,” said SIPRI Director Dan Smith, warning of an accelerating arms race at a “particularly dangerous and unstable moment” for global geopolitics.
China stood out for its rapid buildup. SIPRI estimates Beijing now possesses 600 nuclear warheads, having added 100 in the past two years.
Smith noted that China could reach 1,000 warheads within the next decade, making it a significantly more influential nuclear power, even if still behind Russia and the U.S.
In total, SIPRI reported 12,241 nuclear warheads globally as of January 2025, with 9,614 in stockpiles ready for potential use. Modernisation efforts by the U.S. and Russia remain robust, including the replacement and upgrading of existing warheads and delivery systems.
The UK and France maintained relatively stable arsenals in 2024 — around 225 and 290 warheads respectively — but both continued to invest in nuclear modernisation. The UK is expected to increase its arsenal following a 2021 decision to raise its cap from 225 to 260.
In South Asia, India expanded its stockpile to approximately 180 warheads, while Pakistan’s remained steady at around 170. Both nations continued developing new nuclear delivery systems throughout 2024.
Israel, which maintains a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernising its estimated 90-warhead arsenal. Meanwhile, North Korea’s programme remained central to its defense strategy, with around 50 warheads and enough fissile material to build up to 90.
SIPRI also raised concerns about the next phase of nuclear competition moving beyond traditional metrics. “It’s not just about warhead numbers,” Smith warned, calling the looming arms race “highly technological,” extending into cyberspace, outer space, and software-based guidance systems.
Artificial intelligence is already beginning to complement human decision-making in nuclear command and control. Smith warned, however, that any move toward fully automated systems would be catastrophic.
“If our prospects of being free of the danger of nuclear war were to be left in the hands of an artificial intelligence, I think that then we would be close to the doomsday scenarios,” he said.
