GENEVA, May 28 (Alliance News): The United Nations has warned that there is a 70% chance the global average temperature between 2025 and 2029 will surpass the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, signaling no relief from rising climate threats.
According to a new climate report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the world remains locked in a period of historic warming after the two hottest years on record—2023 and 2024.
“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,” said Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the WMO. “Unfortunately, this report offers no sign of respite in the years ahead.”
The 1.5°C limit was established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, which sought to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. But the WMO now sees that target slipping further out of reach as carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked.
The latest five-year outlook, compiled with support from the UK Met Office and other global forecasting centers, predicts global temperatures between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists say the likelihood of breaching the 1.5°C mark on a long-term basis by the early 2030s is rapidly becoming a certainty.
“There is now an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be hotter than 2024,” the WMO warned.
Climatologist Peter Thorne said the probability of exceeding 1.5°C in the coming years will soon hit 100%, adding, “This is entirely consistent with the long-term trajectory we are on.”
Even more alarming is a newly observed chance—albeit just 1%—that global temperatures could exceed 2°C in at least one of the next five years. “It is shocking,” said Met Office climate expert Adam Scaife, warning that the probability of such an occurrence is expected to increase.
Extreme climate impacts are already being felt worldwide. Last week saw record-breaking temperatures in China, the UAE, and Pakistan, while deadly floods and wildfires have swept across Australia, India, France, Algeria, Canada, and Ghana.
“Relying on oil, gas, and coal in 2025 is total lunacy,” said Dr. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London, stressing that “we’ve already hit a dangerous level of warming.”
The WMO also forecasts continued Arctic warming and significant reductions in sea ice in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas. Wetter conditions are expected in South Asia, northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while the Amazon region faces drier-than-average seasons.
